Joshua Marinacci writes Myth: There aren’t any commercial apps written in Java.
A observation he makes is that all of the Desktop App, and make things that were once applications but are now part of the OS, have been either commoditized or monopolized (or both).
word processing, spreadsheets, email, web browsing. presentations
It kind of fits Jonathan Schwartz’s blog about Commodities and IT, but with (on the desktop) Microsoft playing the role of Standard Oil
Joshua also observes 2 places where their is growth in software, and new applications :